Republic Services delivered fourth-quarter results that were largely stable, though revenue growth was constrained by softer volumes, especially in construction and manufacturing end markets. The company pointed to strong pricing discipline and ongoing cost control as key factors offsetting these headwinds. CEO Jon Vander Ark highlighted that “average yield on total revenue was 3.7%” and underscored the role of digital tools in enhancing operational efficiency. Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions and noted that organic volume declines were concentrated in specific sectors.
Is now the time to buy RSG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Republic Services (RSG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $4.14 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.21 billion (2.2% year-on-year growth, 1.8% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.76 vs analyst estimates of $1.63 (7.9% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.30 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.3 billion (31.3% margin, in line)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $7.24 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 0.8%
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $5.5 billion at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $5.55 billion
- Operating Margin: 19.3%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes fell 1% year on year (1.2% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $68.3 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Republic Services’s Q4 Earnings Call
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Patrick Brown (Raymond James) asked about the mix and contribution of recent acquisitions. CEO Jon Vander Ark explained that the $400 million invested year-to-date was anchored by the Hamm deal, primarily in disposal infrastructure, with contributions factored into the outlook.
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Jerry Revich (Wells Fargo) inquired about the performance and demand outlook for polymer centers. Vander Ark said the Indianapolis and Las Vegas projects are ramping as planned, with incremental revenue and EBITDA expected, but cautioned that additional expansion depends on market conditions for recycled plastics.
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Noah Kaye (Oppenheimer & Company) questioned the conservative outlook for organic growth. Vander Ark replied that ongoing softness in manufacturing and construction justifies caution, while CFO Brian Delghiaccio added residential volumes will remain negative, offset by better performance in other business lines.
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Bryan Burgmeier (Citi) asked about inflation expectations and cost containment. Delghiaccio stated inflation is expected around 3.5%, with yield planned to exceed inflation, and highlighted efforts to keep labor and maintenance costs in line.
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Adam Bubes (Goldman Sachs) sought details on Environmental Solutions’ year-over-year sub-segment declines. Delghiaccio confirmed that landfill and E&P volume drops had the highest negative margin impact, but anticipated improvement as market conditions normalize.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the traction and margin impact of AI-driven routing and pricing initiatives, (2) recovery trends in construction, manufacturing, and Environmental Solutions volumes, and (3) incremental revenue and profitability from new sustainability projects and acquisitions. Additional focus will be placed on whether disciplined pricing can continue offsetting persistent volume headwinds.
Republic Services currently trades at $221.24, in line with $221.19 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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