Airbnb closed the year with results that exceeded Wall Street’s revenue expectations, prompting a significant positive market reaction. Management attributed the momentum to a series of targeted product improvements, including the launch of Reserve Now, Pay Later, updates to cancellation policies, and a move towards more transparent pricing. CEO Brian Chesky highlighted the company’s deliberate innovation cycle, known internally as Project Hawaii, as a primary driver. He explained, “These are just a few of the hundreds of improvements the team shipped, driving hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue in 2025 alone.”
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Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.78 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.72 billion (12% year-on-year growth, 2.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.56 vs analyst expectations of $0.65 (14.3% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $786 million vs analyst estimates of $765.4 million (28.3% margin, 2.7% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $2.61 billion at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $2.54 billion
- Operating Margin: 9.7%, down from 17.3% in the same quarter last year
- Nights and Experiences Booked: 121.9 million, up 10.9 million year on year
- Market Capitalization: $74.5 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Airbnb’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Richard Clarke (Bernstein) asked about the risk of AI platforms launching competing rental marketplaces and the potential need to share economics with them. CEO Brian Chesky argued that Airbnb’s proprietary infrastructure and specialist supply are defensible, noting, “Specialization will win in travel because of our unique offerings.”
- John Colantuoni (Jefferies) questioned the slowdown in Asia Pacific growth and the role of experiences in cross-selling. CFO Ellie Mertz attributed regional differences to varying market maturity and highlighted India’s rapid growth, while emphasizing experiences as a promising channel for acquiring new users.
- Lee Horowitz (Deutsche Bank) probed the impact of Reserve Now, Pay Later on cancellation rates and EBITDA. Mertz reported that cancellation rates increased only modestly and were offset by higher bookings, with “a net benefit to the business.”
- Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley) inquired about the cost impact of AI investments and expected platform improvements in a year. Chesky responded that AI will not drive large capital costs, instead focusing on productivity gains and customer service advancements.
- Lloyd Walmsley (Mizuho) asked about hotel integration challenges and opening the platform to more mainstream inventory. Chesky described a strategy of expanding boutique and independent hotels, using AI for personalized recommendations without sacrificing Airbnb’s unique value proposition.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the global rollout and adoption rate of Reserve Now, Pay Later and its impact on booking patterns, (2) progress in expanding the hotel and experiences offerings, especially in key international markets, and (3) the scale and effectiveness of AI-powered customer support across more languages and regions. Ongoing event-driven supply additions and localized product launches will also serve as important execution markers.
Airbnb currently trades at $124.01, up from $115.96 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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