
Coinbase’s fourth quarter results were marked by a decline in revenue and profitability compared to the prior year, falling short of Wall Street’s expectations. Despite these misses, the market responded positively, with management attributing resilience to diversified revenue streams and new product launches like the Everything Exchange. CEO Brian Armstrong noted that, even as crypto prices fell, Coinbase’s global trading volume and market share reached new all-time highs, highlighting the platform’s ability to attract users for trading beyond core cryptocurrency assets.
Is now the time to buy COIN? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Coinbase (COIN) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.78 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.83 billion (21.6% year-on-year decline, 2.5% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: -$2.49 vs analyst estimates of $0.94 (significant miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $565.9 million vs analyst estimates of $680.8 million (31.8% margin, 16.9% miss)
- Operating Margin: 15.4%, down from 45.5% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $43.32 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Coinbase’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Andrew Jeffrey (William Blair) asked about monetization timing for the Everything Exchange. CFO Alesia Haas said diversification is underway, with derivatives and new asset classes showing early momentum but emphasized more data is needed before quantifying impact.
- Ken Worthington (JPMorgan) questioned if stablecoin rewards could be affected by new regulation. CEO Brian Armstrong responded that legislative changes would not reduce Coinbase’s economics with Circle and could even increase profitability, though the company prefers rewards remain available for customers.
- Owen Lau (Clear Street) inquired about capital allocation priorities given sector valuation declines. Haas explained Coinbase remains focused on buybacks, Bitcoin accumulation, and opportunistic M&A to support the roadmap.
- Robbie Bamberger (Baird) referenced recent platform outages and asked if leverage in the crypto ecosystem poses systemic risk. Haas clarified that the issue was technical, unrelated to trading volume or leverage, and said ongoing investments are aimed at minimizing disruptions.
- Bo Pei (U.S. Tiger) pressed on take rate compression from advanced trading products and Coinbase One memberships. Haas noted a shift toward more trading under Coinbase One, which offers reduced fees, but did not give a long-term forecast for take rates.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking forward, our analysts will monitor (1) adoption rates and monetization of new asset classes within the Everything Exchange, (2) stablecoin payment integration and regulatory developments affecting USDC rewards, and (3) the pace of onchain activity growth via the Base platform. Progress on expense control and successful integration of recent acquisitions will also be important to track.
Coinbase currently trades at $164.28, up from $141.09 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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