Frontdoor has followed the market’s trajectory closely. The stock is down 6.4% to $53.12 per share over the past six months while the S&P 500 has lost 5.5%. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Frontdoor, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.
Why Is Frontdoor Not Exciting?
Despite the more favorable entry price, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why FTDR doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Decline in Home Service Plans Points to Weak Demand
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (for companies like Frontdoor, our preferred volume metric is home service plans). While both are important, the latter is the most critical to analyze because prices have a ceiling.
Frontdoor’s home service plans came in at 2.1 million in the latest quarter, and over the last two years, averaged 2.4% year-on-year declines. This performance was underwhelming and implies there may be increasing competition or market saturation. It also suggests Frontdoor might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to grow, factors that can hinder near-term profitability. 
2. Cash Flow Margin Set to Decline
If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.
Over the next year, analysts predict Frontdoor’s cash conversion will fall. Their consensus estimates imply its free cash flow margin of 14.5% for the last 12 months will decrease to 12.6%.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. On average, Frontdoor’s ROIC decreased by 2.2 percentage points annually over the last few years. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.
Final Judgment
Frontdoor’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 17.4× forward P/E (or $53.12 per share). Investors with a higher risk tolerance might like the company, but we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're pretty confident there are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. We’d suggest looking at one of our top software and edge computing picks.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Frontdoor
The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025.
While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we’re homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver’s seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years.
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
