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This Stock Has Been Beaten Down Bad, But a Major ‘Reversion to the Mean’ Could Be Underway

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Today’s Chart of the Day is going to be a little different. My wife Barbara is a lot smarter than I am. She keeps asking me why I write about stocks that are already hitting new highs instead of beaten-down stocks that have nowhere else to go but up. Then, Rick Santelli comes on “Squawk Box” and starts talking about beaten-down stocks that are experiencing a “reversion to the mean” and she says: “See! Isn’t that what I’ve been telling you?”

That got me thinking about how I could use Barchart’s powerful screening tools to find stocks that have hit bottom and are starting to recover. It was easier than I thought.

 

What I did was use the Russell 3000 Index stocks as my Watchlist and screened for stocks that had a negative Weighted Alpha of over -50 and a Trend Seeker “Buy” signal, then used the Flipcharts feature to find stocks that looked like there were in a real recovery.

My first attempt resulted in 27 stocks out of the 3,000 that fit those criteria. From that list, Agilon Health (AGL) is the one I chose to feature.

It has a Negative Weighted Alpha of -61.08 and a Trend Seeker “Buy” signal.

Today’s Featured Stock

Valued at $499 million, Agilon Health (AGL) offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians. As of Dec. 31, 2024, the company served approximately 526,500 Medicare Advantage members and 132,100 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.

What I’m Watching

I found today’s Chart of the Day by using Barchart’s powerful screening functions to sort for stocks with the Weighted Alpha below -50 and a Trend Seeker “buy” signal. I then used Barchart’s Flipcharts feature to review the charts for reversing price appreciation. AGL checks those boxes. The Trend Seeker issued a new “Buy” signal on April 7. Since then, the stock has gained 81.13%.

www.barchart.com

Barchart Technical Indicators for Agilon Health

Editor’s Note: The technical indicators below are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and can therefore change each day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com website when you read this report. These technical indicators form the Barchart Opinion on a particular stock.

Agilon Health scored an all-time low of $7.48 on March 30.

  • Agilon Health has a Weighted Alpha of -61.76.
  • AGL has a 100% “Buy” opinion from Barchart.
  • The stock has lost 69.95% over the past 52 weeks.
  • Agilon Health has its Trend Seeker “Buy” signal intact.
  • The stock recently traded at $30.05 with a 50-day moving average of $14.37.
  • AGL has made 10 new highs and gained 95.77% over the past month.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 78.34.
  • There’s a technical support level around $28.03.

Don’t Forget the Fundamentals

  • $499 million market capitalization.
  • Analysts project a decrease in revenue of 8.01% this year but an increase of 4.30% next year.
  • Earnings are estimated to increase 77.59% this year and an additional 25.43% next year.

Analyst and Investor Sentiment on Agilon Health

  • The Wall Street analysts followed by Barchart give the stock 2 “Strong Buy,” 15 “Hold” and 2 “Sell” opinions with price targets between $6.25 and $50.02.
  • Value Line rates the stock “Average.”
  • CFRA’s MarketScope rates the stock a “Hold.”
  • Morningstar thinks the stock is fairly valued.
  • 1,579 investors are following the stock on Seeking Alpha, which rates it a “Hold.”
  • Short interest is 8.18% of the float with 7.08 days to cover the float.

The Bottom Line on Agilon Health

AGL stock has been beaten down, but recent analyst earnings revisions give us some hope the price appreciation will continue.  

If you’d like to see more stocks like this featured, please just let us know.

Additional disclosure: The Barchart Chart of the Day highlights stocks that are experiencing exceptional current price appreciation. They are not intended to be buy recommendations as these stocks are extremely volatile and speculative. Should you decide to add one of these stocks to your investment portfolio it is highly suggested you follow a predetermined diversification and moving stop loss discipline that is consistent with your personal investment risk tolerance.


On the date of publication, Jim Van Meerten did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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