American Financial Group’s (NYSE:AFG) Q3 2026 sales beat estimates

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Insurance holding company American Financial Group (NYSE: AFG) reported Q3 2026 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with revenue up 17.2% year on year to $2.58 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $3.97 per share was 4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

For more on American Financial Group, read our free full research report.

American Financial Group (AFG) Q3 2026 highlights:

  • Net premiums earned $2.16 billion vs analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.07 billion (7.5% year-on-year growth, 4.6% beat)
  • Revenue $2.58 billion vs S&P analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.35 billion (17.2% year-on-year growth, 10.1% beat)
  • Combined ratio 94% vs analysts’ consensus estimates of 93.6% (40 basis point miss)
  • Adjusted EPS $3.97 vs S&P analysts’ consensus estimates of $3.82 (4% beat)
  • Book value per share $57.12 vs analysts’ consensus estimates of $62.62 (flat year on year, 8.8% miss)
  • Market capitalization $12.87 billion

S. Craig Lindner and Carl H. Lindner III, AFG’s Co-Chief Executive Officers, issued this statement: “We are particularly pleased with exceptionally strong core net operating earnings, our highest ever in the third quarter. Strong underwriting margins, healthy premium growth and higher quarterly P&C net investment income drove a new third quarter record for pretax P&C operating income and produced an impressive annualized core operating return on equity of 26%. These results, coupled with effective capital management and our entrepreneurial, opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy, enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders.”

Revenue growth

Insurers generate revenue from three key sources. The first is the core business of underwriting policies. The second source is income from investing the “float” (premiums collected upfront not yet paid out as claims) in fixed-income assets and equities. The third is fees from various sources such as policy administration, annuities or other value-added services. Over the last five years, American Financial Group grew its revenue at a mediocre 7.1% compounded annual growth rate, falling short of our benchmark for the insurance sector.

American Financial Group quarterly revenue

Long-term growth is the most important, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes and market returns. American Financial Group’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 4% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. Decelerating revenue growth in the sector warrants caution, as it could signal changing consumer tastes aided by low switching costs. American Financial Group year-on-year revenue growthNote: Quarters not shown were determined to be outliers because they were impacted by outsized investment gains/losses that are not indicative of the recurring fundamentals of the business.

This quarter, American Financial Group reported year-on-year revenue growth of 17.2%, and its $2.58 billion of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s consensus estimates by 10.1%.

Net premiums earned made up 90.2% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning American Financial Group depends heavily on its underwriting activities because non-insurance operations contribute little.

American Financial Group quarterly net premiums earned as % of revenue

The market focuses primarily on an insurer’s net premiums earned growth as investment and fee income are considered more susceptible to market volatility and economic cycles.

Book value per share (BVPS)

Insurance companies are balance sheet businesses, collecting premiums upfront and paying out claims over time. The float (premiums collected but not yet paid out) is invested, creating an asset base supported by a liability structure. Book value per share, or BVPS, captures this dynamic by measuring these assets (investment portfolio, cash, reinsurance recoverables) less liabilities (claim reserves, debt, future policy benefits). BVPS is essentially the residual value for shareholders.

BVPS is therefore an important metric to track for insurers and sheds light on business quality. While other, more commonly known per-share metrics such as earnings per share, or EPS, can sometimes be lumpy due to reserve releases or one-time items and can be managed or skewed while still following accounting rules, BVPS reflects long-term capital growth and is harder to manipulate.

American Financial Group’s BVPS declined at a 1.6% annual rate over the last five years. BVPS has stabilized recently as it was flat over the last two years at about $57.12 per share.

American Financial Group quarterly book value per share

Over the next 12 months, consensus estimates call for American Financial Group’s BVPS to grow by 18.8% to $62.62, a strong growth rate.

Key takeaways from American Financial Group’s Q3 results

American Financial Group’s Q3 results were mixed: Net premiums earned and revenue both beat consensus estimates by wide margins, but book value per share fell short. Shares remained flat at $153.07 immediately after the report.

Is American Financial Group a buy at its current price? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business quality and latest quarterly results. Read the full research report here (it’s free).

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