What Happened?
Shares of genetic testing company Natera (NASDAQ: NTRA). jumped 3% in the afternoon session after the company announced its Signatera molecular residual disease test was selected for a Phase III clinical trial for muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
The trial, known as ARCHER, is sponsored by NRG Oncology and will evaluate whether shorter radiation therapy courses can achieve outcomes comparable to the current standard of care. The large-scale study is expected to enroll patients from over 100 sites across the United States and Canada. Natera's Signatera test, which is designed to detect residual cancer and recurrence, will serve as a pre-specified secondary endpoint in the trial. This inclusion follows other positive developments, including recent results from a separate Phase III trial that demonstrated Signatera's ability to predict immunotherapy benefits in bladder cancer patients after surgery, reinforcing the test's clinical utility.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $167.77, up 2.9% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Natera’s shares are quite volatile and have had 16 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 20 days ago when the stock gained 11.6% on the news that it reported strong second-quarter 2025 financial results, including a significant revenue beat and raised full-year guidance. The company posted revenue of $546.6 million, up 32.2% year-over-year and surpassing Wall Street's estimates by a notable 14.7%. This growth was supported by a 12.7% increase in the number of tests processed. However, it was not all positive, as Natera's GAAP loss per share of $0.74 came in wider than analysts had expected. Despite the earnings miss, investors were encouraged by the company's upgraded forecast. Natera lifted its full-year revenue guidance to a midpoint of $2.06 billion, an $80 million increase from its previous projection, signaling confidence in its continued growth trajectory.
Natera is up 4.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $167.77 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $177 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Natera’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,606.
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