May corn (ZCK26) futures on Friday rose 7 cents to $4.60 1/2, hit a nearly four-month high, and for the week were up 12 cents. May soybean (ZSK26) futures rose 21 1/2 cents to $12.00 3/4, hit a two-year high, and for the week rose 30 cents. May soft red winter wheat (ZWK26) futures on Friday gained 33 cents to $6.16 3/4, hit an eight-month high, and for the week were up 25 1/4 cents. May hard red winter wheat (KEK26) rose 31 cents to $6.23 1/2, hit a nine-month high, and on the week were up 43 cents.
Surging crude oil (CBK26) (CLJ26) prices that pushed above $90 a barrel in Nymex futures Friday are a bullish outside-market element for the grains. Also, it appears that speculators are now paying closer attention to the grain markets, including the big fund traders, as the grains’ near-term technical postures have become significantly more bullish recently. The big bull runs in the metals markets are now very mature and may be petering out. That has the smart money looking for another market sector that could be on the verge of being the next big upside mover. Grains could be that sector.
All three grain markets on Friday saw technically bullish weekly high closes, suggesting follow-through price strength early next week from the chart-based speculators.
Grain traders will get the monthly USDA supply and demand report on Tuesday, although no major changes from the agency are expected for any market. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year for the corn, soybean, and wheat markets.
Corn and soybean traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. Generally good growing weather is forecast for corn and soybeans over the next week in Brazil. Increasing rain over the next 10 days should make for good late-season crop development. However, there are some dry spots in southern Argentina that need rain.
U.S. Corn Exports Remain Strong
U.S. corn export sales and shipments continue to be strong. However, elevated geopolitical tensions, including global trade repercussions and rising fertilizer prices, are potential roadblocks to corn futures extending their rally. As springtime nears, fertilizer availability and fertilizer prices could modestly impact U.S. corn crop-planting decisions.
Soybean Oil Leading the Soy Complex Futures Higher
Soybean oil’s (ZLK26) surge is helping lead soybeans higher as refiners look to lock in supplies following the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2026 biomass-biodiesel mandate and amid surging crude oil. However, soybean oil’s bull run could end abruptly if crude oil prices start to back off on notions oil flows out of the Middle East will return to normal.
The planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in April will be very closely watched by the grain markets but especially by soybean traders.
Wheat Markets Trending Up but Are Short-Term Overbought
The winter wheat futures markets soared Friday amid surging crude oil prices that hit a two-year high, a lower U.S. dollar index ($DXY), and on technical buying amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. However, the winter wheat markets are now short-term overbought, technically, and due for corrective price pullbacks very soon. Such would actually be positive, suggesting the price uptrend can continue.
U.S. hard red winter wheat country could use some more rainfall. However, weather forecasters say rains the next week will likely be limited to southeastern HRW areas. The western half of the region is expected to be left mostly dry.
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On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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