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AMC Entertainment (AMC): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?

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AMC Cover Image

What a fantastic six months it’s been for AMC Entertainment. Shares of the company have skyrocketed 93.6%, hitting $2.85. This was partly due to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in AMC Entertainment, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.

Why Do We Think AMC Entertainment Will Underperform?

We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we’re passing on AMC Entertainment for now. Here are three reasons why AMC doesn’t excite us, plus one stock we’d rather own.

1. Lackluster Revenue Growth

We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new product or trend. AMC Entertainment’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 7.9% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. We’re wary when companies in the sector see decelerations in revenue growth, as it could signal changing consumer tastes aided by low switching costs. Note that COVID hurt AMC Entertainment’s business in 2020 and part of 2021, and it bounced back in a big way thereafter. AMC Entertainment Year-On-Year Revenue Growth

2. Free Cash Flow Projections Disappoint

Free cash flow isn’t a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it’s telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

Over the next year, analysts’ consensus estimates show they’re expecting AMC Entertainment’s breakeven free cash flow margin for the last 12 months to remain the same.

3. High Debt Levels Increase Risk

As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.

AMC Entertainment’s $7.72 billion of debt exceeds the $778.4 million of cash on its balance sheet. Furthermore, its 11× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio (based on its EBITDA of $616 million over the last 12 months) shows the company is overleveraged.

AMC Entertainment Net Debt Position

At this level of debt, incremental borrowing becomes increasingly expensive and credit agencies could downgrade the company’s rating if profitability falls. AMC Entertainment could also be backed into a corner if the market turns unexpectedly – a situation we seek to avoid as investors in high-quality companies.

We hope AMC Entertainment can improve its balance sheet and remain cautious until it increases its profitability or pays down its debt.

Final Judgment

AMC Entertainment falls short of our quality standards. After the recent surge, the stock trades at 13.4× forward EV-to-EBITDA (or $2.85 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t see a big opportunity at the moment. There are better stocks to buy right now. We’d suggest looking at one of our top digital advertising picks.

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