What Happened?
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.5%, providing valuation relief amid a broader tech pullback.
While semiconductor stocks like Micron (-2%) and Cerebras (-10%) dragged the Nasdaq lower, software names like Salesforce and ServiceNow found relative support from falling yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% as oil prices slid, signaling easing inflation pressures. Software companies, particularly high-growth SaaS names, are highly sensitive to interest rates because their valuations are based on cash flows expected far in the future. When the 10-year yield drops, the discount rate applied to those future earnings decreases, mechanically boosting their present value. While the broader tech sector is undergoing a "recalibration of expectations" following the semiconductor run-up, falling yields validate the structural valuation floor for software stocks with recurring revenue models.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Marketing Software company Braze (NASDAQ: BRZE) jumped 2.7%. Is now the time to buy Braze? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- HR Software company Paylocity (NASDAQ: PCTY) jumped 3%. Is now the time to buy Paylocity? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Paylocity (PCTY)
Paylocity’s shares are quite volatile and have had 15 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 7 days ago when the stock dropped 3.8% on the news that the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75%, unchanged since the central bank cut by three-quarters of a point in late 2025, and then delivered a dot plot that told investors the easing cycle underpinning the sector's re-rating might be over.
The median year-end rate estimate moved from 3.4% to 3.8%, removing any remaining expectation of a 2026 cut and introducing the possibility of a hike. Software companies are priced on earnings five to ten years into the future, and every basis point increase in the risk-free rate reduces the present value of those cash flows. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 4.161% in the session. The late-2025 cuts had given software valuations room to expand; the FOMC outcome constricted that room.
Paylocity is down 28.8% since the beginning of the year, and at $103.77 per share, it is trading 45.5% below its 52-week high of $190.36 from July 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Paylocity’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at only $540.35.
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