
The stocks in this article have caught Wall Street’s attention in a big way, with price targets implying returns above 20%. But investors should take these forecasts with a grain of salt because analysts typically say nice things about companies so their firms can win business in other product lines like M&A advisory.
At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bullish calls are justified. That said, here is one stock where Wall Street’s excitement appears well-founded and two where analysts may be overlooking some important risks.
Two Stocks to Sell:
Nature's Sunshine (NATR)
Consensus Price Target: $33 (25.6% implied return)
Started on a kitchen table in Utah, Nature’s Sunshine (NASDAQ: NATR) manufactures and sells nutritional and personal care products.
Why Is NATR Not Exciting?
- Sales trends were unexciting over the last three years as its 4.4% annual growth was below the typical consumer staples company
- Subscale operations are evident in its revenue base of $480.1 million, meaning it has fewer distribution channels than its larger rivals
- Operating margin of 4.8% falls short of the industry average, and the smaller profit dollars make it harder to react to unexpected market developments
Nature's Sunshine is trading at $26.27 per share, or 23.5x forward P/E. If you’re considering NATR for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.
First Advantage (FA)
Consensus Price Target: $15 (24.2% implied return)
Processing over 200 million screens annually across more than 200 countries and territories, First Advantage (NASDAQ: FA) provides employment background screening, identity verification, and compliance solutions to help companies manage hiring risks.
Why Are We Hesitant About FA?
- Flat earnings per share over the last four years lagged its peers
- Free cash flow margin dropped by 8.6 percentage points over the last five years, implying the company became more capital intensive as competition picked up
- Below-average returns on capital indicate management struggled to find compelling investment opportunities, and its decreasing returns suggest its historical profit centers are aging
First Advantage’s stock price of $12.08 implies a valuation ratio of 9.8x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including FA in your portfolio.
One Stock to Watch:
ResMed (RMD)
Consensus Price Target: $292.33 (30.1% implied return)
Founded in 1989 to address the then-underdiagnosed condition of sleep apnea, ResMed (NYSE: RMD) develops cloud-connected medical devices and software solutions that treat sleep apnea, COPD, and other respiratory disorders for home and clinical use.
Why Do We Like RMD?
- Constant currency growth averaged 9% over the past two years, showing it can expand globally regardless of the macroeconomic environment
- Incremental sales over the last five years have been highly profitable as its earnings per share increased by 14.2% annually, topping its revenue gains
- Free cash flow margin expanded by 19.7 percentage points over the last five years, providing additional flexibility for investments and share buybacks/dividends
At $224.75 per share, ResMed trades at 19.7x forward P/E. Is now the time to initiate a position? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.
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