3 Reasons to Sell LAUR and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

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Laureate Education trades at $38.01 per share and has stayed right on track with the overall market, gaining 13.2% over the last six months. At the same time, the S&P 500 has returned 16.3%.

Is now the time to buy Laureate Education, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Laureate Education Will Underperform?

We’re passing on Laureate Education for now. Here are three reasons we avoid LAUR, plus one stock we’d rather own.

1. Weak Growth in Enrolled Students Points to Soft Demand

Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (for companies like Laureate Education, our preferred volume metric is enrolled students). While both are important, the latter is the most critical to analyze because prices have a ceiling.

Laureate Education’s enrolled students came in at 501,400 in the latest quarter, and over the last two years, averaged 5.7% year-on-year growth. This performance was underwhelming and suggests it might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to accelerate growth, factors that can hinder near-term profitability. Laureate Education Enrolled Students

2. Cash Flow Margin Set to Decline

Free cash flow isn’t a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it’s telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

Over the next year, analysts predict Laureate Education’s cash conversion will slightly fall. Their consensus estimates imply its free cash flow margin of 15.7% for the last 12 months will decrease to 15.4%.

3. Previous Growth Initiatives Haven’t Impressed

Growth gives us insight into a company’s long-term potential, but how capital-efficient was that growth? Enter ROIC, a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

Laureate Education historically did a mediocre job investing in profitable growth initiatives. Its five-year average ROIC was 18.6%, somewhat low compared to the best consumer discretionary companies that consistently pump out 65%+.

Laureate Education Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

We cheer for all companies serving everyday consumers, but in the case of Laureate Education, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. That said, the stock currently trades at 17.1× forward P/E (or $38.01 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t see a big opportunity at the moment. There are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at the most dominant software business in the world.

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