• Peak back-to-school traffic expected in August across regions
• Overall, in-store shopper traffic trends are expected to be in line with year-to-date performance, which has averaged -2.3%

School may be starting later this year, but new data from Sensormatic Solutions—the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI)—suggests the shift will have little impact on peak shopping periods in the United States. According to its ShopperTrak Analytics, despite an unusually late Labor Day (Sept. 7, 2026), overall timing and in-store visit counts are expected to remain relatively consistent, with the busiest shopping days predicted to fall between Aug. 2 and 28 across all regions.

Based on Sensormatic Solutions in-store shopper activity data, its analytics team predicts the busiest in-store shopping weeks are likely to be:

• South: Aug. 2-8
• West: Aug. 2-8
• Midwest: Aug. 9-15
• Northeast: Aug. 16-29

“Though our predicted busiest days align nicely with last year’s trends, retailers should approach the season with the understanding that the landscape around them has changed significantly,” said Grant Gustafson, head of Retail Consulting and Analytics at Sensormatic Solutions. “Each region’s unique school calendar, the global supply chain, and consumer behavior trends may impact how shoppers show up this year—and each presents an opportunity for retailers to win new customers and build loyalty by fine-tuning product assortments, promotions, and operations that can transform an annual errand into a meaningful, satisfying experience.”

Saturdays in August are expected to see the largest single-day crowds of the season, with peak traffic anticipated between 2 and 3 p.m. As a result, the highest-volume days are likely to round out each 2026 rush:

• South: Saturday, Aug. 8
• West: Saturday, Aug. 8
• Midwest: Saturday, Aug. 15
• Northeast: Saturday, Aug. 29

“We expect that each region’s busiest day will occur roughly two weeks before the local school year begins, a timing driven by the school calendar that varies by market,” said Gustafson. “Retailers should consider forecasting traffic volume relative to each market's start date, rather than copying another region's strategy. This school calendar-driven, region-specific approach may be the key to success this back-to-school season.”

For the latest on Sensormatic Solutions back-to-school analysis, follow @sensormatic on LinkedIn.

About Johnson Controls

Johnson Controls, a global leader in thermal management, mission-critical building systems, energy efficiency, and decarbonization, helps customers use energy more productively, reduce carbon emissions, and operate with the precision and resilience required in rapidly expanding industries such as data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and higher education.

For more than 140 years, Johnson Controls has delivered performance where it really matters. Backed by advanced technology, lifecycle services and an industry-leading field organization, we elevate customer performance, turn goals into real-world results and help move society forward.

Visit johnsoncontrols.com for more information and follow @Johnsoncontrols on social platforms.

About Sensormatic Solutions

Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls, powers safe, secure and seamless retail experiences. For more than 60 years, the brand has been at the forefront of the industry’s fast-moving technology adoption, redefining retail operations on a global scale and turning insights into actions. Sensormatic Solutions delivers an interconnected ecosystem of loss prevention, inventory intelligence and traffic insight solutions, along with our services and partners to enable retailers worldwide to innovate and elevate with precision, connecting data-driven outcomes that shape retail’s future. Please visit Sensormatic Solutions or follow us on LinkedIn and our YouTube channel.

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