Today on The MarketBeat Podcast Kate’s guest is Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors. Tom remains optimistic about investors’ prospects going forward, even as the market reacts to the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell about “pain ahead.” In this interview, you’ll hear Tom’s accurate forecast about the market’s response to Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole summit. But Tom also offers several specific ideas regarding stocks he’s watching, and why.
-How does Tom frame the current market conditions, with the worst first half of the year in decades for both stocks and bonds?
-How government spending supercharged the stock market in 2020 and 2021, but valuations eventually corrected as the speculative bubble burst
-How did the Fed’s increasing rates affect the market, particularly many techs, such as cloud companies?
-Why Tom believes much of the bad news has already been discounted at this point, but he also believes the market is currently overbought and expects a pullback
-“Don’t fight the Fed” is an old adage, and after Jackson Hole, it’s clear the Fed is not yet done raising rates- as Tom predicted in this interview
-Inflation will eventually come down, but investors will have to wait it out
-How the Ukraine war created supply disruptions and affected food commodities
-What Tom means by “revaluing” stocks
-Why you can look around and spot growing industries, like 5G
-How Tom evaluates growth for his portfolio, using fundamental metrics
-In this kind of an interest rate environment, why we’re seeing stocks at reasonable levels P/E levels
-Why Tom sees secular growth in the cyber security industry, despite stocks still looking expensive, in terms of valuation
-What is the “pick and shovel” analogy and why does it apply to stocks today? In which industries does Tom see this happening?
-How should investors be approaching the markets at this juncture? Tom sees a battle between the macro environment and what the technicals are showing us
-Why Tom thinks the market got ahead of itself, and what investors should look for
-Listen to Tom’s prediction about Fed rate hikes- which was absolutely correct!
Stocks mentioned in this episode:
Twilio (TWLO)
American Tower (AMT)
ServiceNow (NOW)
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
Aptiv (APTV)
How to learn more about Vineyard Global:
https://www.vineyardglobaladvisors.com/
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