The "current performance" index for business activities eased marginally to 53.1 in Q2 from 53.5 in Q1. A breakdown of index components supports the front-loading narrative; “Production/sales” was the strongest performer among the eight main sub-indices, in terms of both absolute score (57.1, the highest in a year) and change (+4.2 pts). Other positive drivers include “Fixed asset investment” (+2.0pts), “Profits” (+1.1pts) and “Raw material inventory” (+0.1pts).   

Meanwhile, the “expectations” index for business activity fell to 52.0 in Q2 from 54.3 in Q1. This is the weakest level since Q4-2022, but the fact that expectations stayed above the 50 neutral mark provides some relief. There is a broad-based deterioration across sub-components as seven of the eight expectations sub-indices fell, and the exception was “Capacity utilisation". “Financing scale” (-5.1pts), “Finished goods/services price” (-4.8pts) and “Production/sales” (-2.6pts) saw the biggest declines in the quarter.

By sector, “Innovation and technology” outperformed (+6.3pts for “current performance” and +5.5pts for “expectations”), while “Manufacturing and trading” showed short-term resilience (-0.4pts and -2.1pts) as rush orders ahead of US tariff implementation have kept manufacturers busy. ‘Retail and wholesale’ disappointed (-1.0pts and -4.1pts), despite the perceived effectiveness of China’s consumer goods trade-in program.

Across GBA cities, there was setback for Hong Kong and Guangzhou. Hong Kong saw the biggest drops among GBA cities (-9.8pts for “current performance” and -10.5pts for “expectations”) in the quarter. This partly reflects its vulnerability to the external environment and domestic consumption struggles. Guangzhou fell 9.3pts for “current performance” and 6.3pts for “expectations”.

Kelvin Lau, Senior Economist, Greater China and North Asia, Standard Chartered, said:

“The looming tariff uncertainty has driven the front-loading of orders and production in the second quarter, while also accelerating AI development. Looking ahead, the findings revealed a more cautious view of GBA businesses amid the uncertain business outlook in the second half, especially regarding the outcome of bilateral trade deals after the 90-day pauses. Additionally, Hong Kong's economy saw steady expansion in the first quarter. Given the significant proportion of external economic activities relative to its GDP, international trade and tariff policies are crucial for Hong Kong.”

For thematic questions, only some 10% of respondents saw a material direct impact from US tariff hikes. Notably, tariff pauses and exemptions provided relief on the impact, this underscores the importance of maintaining the recent US-China trade truce and quickly finalising other bilateral trade deals in Q3.

In terms of the impact of doing business, 41% of the respondents said US tariff hikes would delay the implementation of their business plans. Other major impacts include “difficult to navigate high level of logistical/customs disruption/uncertainty” (35%) and “losing business to other markets with lower tariff impact” (30%). Meanwhile, 32% of the respondents would sell more into the domestic market as the most common way to address the US tariff shocks and associated uncertainties.

Irina Fan, Director of Research, HKTDC, said: “The findings showed that GBA companies are relatively resilient to US tariffs, although our survey was conducted shortly after the US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs against its trade partners in April and did not capture all of the more recent developments since. Some 75-80% of the GBA companies see negative impacts by US tariffs, mostly due to delay in business plan implementation and logistics disruptions.” 

“In response to this new era of US trade policy, GBA companies seek to increase domestic sales and expanding to key markets in the region, in particular ASEAN, reflecting the mainland and HKSAR Governments’ efforts in promoting closer economic ties with these countries and regions.”

About the GBAI

The GBAI is the first forward-looking quarterly survey in the market that looks at the business sentiment and synergistic effects in cities and industries across the GBA. It is compiled based on a survey of more than 1,000 companies in the GBA covering the manufacturing and trading, retail and wholesale, financial services, professional services and innovation and technology sectors. The index enables investors and businesses to better understand the current business climate, gauge future performance prospects and formulate their market strategies for the GBA.

Related materials
HKTDC Research: https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjA1NzIwMTI0MQ

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The history of Standard Chartered in Hong Kong dates back to 1859. It is currently one of the Hong Kong SAR’s three note-issuing banks. Standard Chartered incorporated its Hong Kong business on 1 July 2004, and now operates as a licensed bank in Hong Kong under the name of Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Chartered PLC.

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About HKTDC

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With over 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via research reports and digital news channels. For more information, please visit:www.hktdc.com/aboutus.