Heading into 2024, Americans are bracing for extended and potentially escalating global turmoil.
As global hotspots in the Middle East and Europe have ignited in conflict, the latest Reagan National Defense Survey shows an unwavering belief that the United States should act as a leader in the world, rebuild its eroding military strength, and support our friends and allies in Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as they defend their freedom.
Political leaders of all stripes – from President Biden to Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to presidential candidates – should listen to what the American people have to say on strengthening U.S. global leadership and national defense. Here are three key takeaways from the new survey:
Some in Washington want the United States to focus less on Europe and the Middle East in order to prioritize the threat China poses in East Asia. The American people reject this approach.
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Instead, they want the U.S. military to have a global posture, allocating military resources and attention equally in Asia, the Middle East and Europe – a strategy many national security experts agree with.
Most Americans, including supermajorities in both parties, want more defense spending to support this global presence, and they are concerned that congressional budget cuts will reduce the military’s capabilities.
Americans support providing military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. A strong, bipartisan majority thinks the United States should help its allies and friends defend themselves if they are willing to take up arms to fight aggression against their own countries.
Despite some media narratives about waning support for Ukraine, the number of Americans who want to provide military assistance has remained exactly the same (six in 10) as in our previous polls in recent months and years.
More than half of Americans view China as the country posing the greatest threat to the United States, up 30 points in five years. However, Americans are overconfident about U.S. military capabilities compared to China, believing we have superior air and naval forces – a view that is out of step with many expert assessments that show an eroding U.S. military advantage, given the Chinese military buildup and American underinvestment in our military.
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With all of this in mind, policymakers should take the following steps to strengthen America’s national defense:
There is a disconnect between what Americans want – increased military spending – and what Congress is doing, debating cuts to defense spending. Instead, Congress should prioritize investing in the best guarantor of peace: American military strength.
Current defense spending relative to GDP is significantly lower than it was during the Cold War, and the defense budget has not kept pace with inflation in recent years – much less than the 5% annual real growth that many experts recommend. Restocking our munitions, building more ships, and modernizing our nuclear deterrent will strengthen our national defense, and investing in advanced technologies like AI would give us a strategic advantage over China and other rivals.
Accustomed to hearing, for at least a generation, that we have the finest military in the world, Americans are not aware that our military advantage is eroding – or that China is rapidly outpacing us with investments in its military. Our survey suggests that leaders have not effectively articulated to the broader public what the Pentagon and numerous wargames have revealed about the United States and China’s military balance.
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Leaders should be honest about China’s rapid military advancements and the effects of U.S. underinvestment. Americans may be shocked to learn that China has the largest naval fleet in the world and is on track to have over a thousand nuclear warheads by the end of this decade.
Buliding the political will for long-term strategic competition requires public awareness of the threat we face – and our preparedness to meet it.
Seven in 10 Americans believe the United States needs more domestic manufacturing capacity to meet our current national defense needs – let alone what would be required to ramp up production in the event of a crisis. Increased government investment in this area would give a clear demand signal to industry, and multi-year budgeting would reduce the risk that industry would take on when expanding production lines.
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In an increasingly dangerous world, President Reagan’s wisdom remains timeless: "We know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted."
Increasing investments in the U.S. military, sounding the alarm about the U.S. military’s eroding superiority, and rebuilding our defense industrial base would strengthen the forces of freedom and ensure peace through strength.
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Thomas Kenna serves as the policy associate at the Ronald Reagan Institute.
