While the exact results of the mid-term elections aren't known just yet, polling models and PredictIt odds, which represent consensus expectations, show a narrow Republican majority in the House and a probable Democrat control of the Senate.
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This result should be equity positive for several reasons:
- A tighter fiscal policy which makes the Fed's job easier and raises the odds of a more dovish path for monetary policy.
- A narrow Republican majority reduces the tail risk of a disorderly debt ceiling impasse. The recent UK experience showed that the market has little patience for fiscal uncertainty.
The full post can be found here.