Over the last six months, First Busey’s shares have sunk to $22.21, producing a disappointing 8.5% loss - a stark contrast to the S&P 500’s 1.7% gain. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is now the time to buy First Busey, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.
Why Is First Busey Not Exciting?
Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on First Busey for now. Here are three reasons why you should be careful with BUSE and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Net Interest Income Points to Soft Demand
Markets consistently prioritize net interest income growth over fee-based revenue, recognizing its superior quality and recurring nature compared to the more unpredictable non-interest income streams.
First Busey’s net interest income has grown at a 5.9% annualized rate over the last four years, worse than the broader bank industry. Its growth was driven by both an increase in its outstanding loans and net interest margin, which represents how much a bank earns in relation to its outstanding loan book.
2. Low Net Interest Margin Reveals Weak Loan Book Profitability
Net interest margin represents how much a bank earns in relation to its outstanding loans. It’s one of the most important metrics to track because it shows how a bank’s loans are performing and whether it has the ability to command higher premiums for its services.
Over the past two years, we can see that First Busey’s net interest margin averaged a weak 2.9%, meaning it must compensate for lower profitability through increased loan originations.
3. Deteriorating Efficiency Ratio
Topline growth carries importance, but the overall profitability behind this expansion determines true value creation. For banks, the efficiency ratio captures this relationship by measuring non-interest expenses, including salaries, facilities, technology, and marketing, against total revenue.
Markets understand that a bank’s expense base depends on its revenue mix and what mostly drives share price performance is the change in this ratio, rather than its absolute value. It’s somewhat counterintuitive, but a lower efficiency ratio is better.
Over the last four years, First Busey’s efficiency ratio has swelled by 9.1 percentage points, hitting 59.9% for the past 12 months. Said differently, the company’s expenses have increased at a faster rate than revenue, which is usually raises questions in mature industries (the exception is a high-growth company that reinvests its profits in attractive ventures).
Final Judgment
First Busey isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 0.9× forward P/B (or $22.21 per share). This valuation is reasonable, but the company’s shakier fundamentals present too much downside risk. We're fairly confident there are better stocks to buy right now. We’d suggest looking at the most dominant software business in the world.
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