FORM 6-K

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

Report of Foreign Private Issuer

 

Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited

(Translation of registrant’s name into English)

 

Level 6, 100 Queen Street Melbourne Victoria Australia

(Address of principal executive offices)

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover Form 20-F or Form 40-F.

 

Form 20-F

 

ý

 

Form 40-F

o

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant by furnishing the information contained in this Form is also thereby furnishing the information to the Commission pursuant to Rule 12g3- 2(b) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

 

Yes

 

o

 

No

ý

 

If “Yes” is marked, indicate below the file number assigned to the registrant in connection with Rule 12g3-2(b): 82-                

 



 

Signatures

 

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.

 

 

Australia and New Zealand
Banking Group Limited

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Registrant)

 

 

 

 

 

By:

/s/ John Priestley

 

 

 

Company Secretary

 

 

(Signature)*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date 10 August 2004

 

 

 


* Print the name and title of the signing officer under his signature.

 



 

 

Media Release

 

Corporate Affairs
100 Queen Street
Melbourne Vic 3000
Facsimile 03 9273 4899
www.anz.com

 

For Release:  29 July 2004

 

ANZ acquires Trust’s custody client base

 

ANZ today announced it had entered into an agreement with Trust Company of Australia to acquire Trust’s client base for custody services in equity, fixed interest and related asset products, creating a platform for further growth in ANZ’s specialist Custodian Services business.

 

Announcement Key Points

 

                                          ANZ will take over Trust’s domestic and master custody client contracts.

 

                                          The agreement strengthens ANZ Custodian Services’ product and service offerings, particularly in the Master Custody business.

 

                                          Develops scale for ANZ’s custody business with assets under custody growing from $50 billion to $61 billion following the addition of Trust’s client contracts for equity, fixed interest and related asset products.

 

                                          Clear plan established for ANZ and Trust to ensure continuity of client service standards over a 12-month transition period.

 

                                          Agreement consideration based on successful migration of contracts over the transition period.

 

ANZ Managing Director Trade and Transaction Services, Mr Mark Paton said:  “The addition of this part of Trust’s custody client base is a further step in building a leading specialist custody business.

 

“Custodian Services is an attractive business which leverages ANZ’s strong corporate and institutional client franchise and offers good growth opportunities.

 

“We already have a successful organic growth strategy in custody services based on a specialist focus which has seen assets under custody grow by 20% during 2004.   This move enhances the product and service offerings we can deliver to clients and builds further scale for the business,” Mr Paton said.

 

ANZ Custodian Services provides safekeeping, settlement, income collection and reporting services for client investments in Australia, New Zealand and globally.

 

For media enquiries contact:

 

Paul Edwards
Head of Group Media Relations
Tel: 03-9273 6955 or 0409-655 550
Email: paul.edwards@anz.com

 



 

 

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The ANZ Risk Management

Framework

 

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited

 

27 July 2004

 

Dr Mark Lawrence

 

Chief Risk Officer

 

 

 

[LOGO]

 



 

Creating a more sustainable, lower risk business

 

              Significantly improved credit risk framework, profile and outcomes

 

•           Strong market & operational risk capability

 

              Economic capital models embedded for all major risks across all businesses

 

              Independent central risk team is formally involved in all strategic initiatives

 

              Simplifying and strengthening compliance - ongoing

 

2



 

The Broad Framework

 



 

Context:  ANZ has been building its Risk Management Capability for more than a decade

 

Prior to 1994

 

No formal “Risk Management” function, but ANZ had a credit “workout” area and an operational risk function; Rudimentary risk grading and pricing processes; no risk-based capital allocation

 

 

 

1995

 

Credit risk unit formed, with a particular emphasis on handling our actual and prospective property portfolio

 

 

 

1996-97

 

Board Risk Management Committee established;
Regulatory Compliance framework implemented;
Credit risk grading models built – Probability of Default, Loss Given Default;
Portfolio granularity enhanced; economic capital for credit risk; EVA

 

 

 

1999

 

Market and Operational Risk capability strengthened

 

 

 

2000

 

Operational Risk economic capital model implemented;
Creation of dedicated Retail Risk function

 

 

 

2001

 

Basel II project commenced

 

 

 

2002

 

Substantial Risk Management capability embedded in consumer businesses;

 

 

 

2003

 

Increased focus on the management of project risks;
Formal Group Risk Management involvement in Strategy

 

 

 

2004

 

Specialised Technology Risk function created Group Compliance framework enhanced

 

4



 

ANZ Organisation & Board Governance

 

ANZ Board

 

Board Risk Management Committee

Board Audit
Committee

 

 

Principal Executive Risk Committees

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit & Trading
Risk Committee
(CTC)

 

Asset & Liability
Committee
(GALCO)

 

Operational Risk
Executive
Committee (OREC)

 

Project & Initiative
Review Committee
(PIRC)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Policy

 

      Balance Sheet Risk

 

      Compliance

 

      Project risk

 

      Major Lending Decisions

 

 

 

      Payments/ operational risk

 

      Project governance

 

      Asset Writing Strategies

 

 

 

      Security

 

      Project priorities

 

     Portfolio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     Trading Risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5



 

Governance Role of Group Risk Management

 

                                          Final authority to determine the risk boundary conditions for the Group and for each business

 

                                          Responsible for risk policies, principles and process standards that define ANZ Group’s risk strategy and appetite

 

                                          Satisfy the Board that controls, skills and systems enable compliance with Group policies and standards

 

                                          Responsible for measuring, assessing and monitoring the level of risk in the Group; approving material risk exposures, limits and transactions; and reporting these and other material risk issues to Executive Management, the Board and Regulators

 

                                          Champion ANZ’s reputation and risk culture, with objectivity and independence, ensuring that risk is always considered as part of the strategic agenda

 

6



 

Group Risk Management Structure July 2004

 

Chief Risk
Officer
Mark Lawrence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wholesale Risk
David Stephen

Retail Risk
Peter Tormey

Operational  &
Technology Risk
Graham Collier
(Acting)

Chief Operating
Officer &
Market Risk
Bob Stribling

Compliance
Sean Hughes

Basel II
Implementation
Morris Batty

Chief Risk Officer
ANZ National
Mike Aynsley

 

7



 

ANZ Culture: A Question of Balance

 

                  ANZ is focused on achieving growth within appropriate risk/control boundaries

                  Balance is the KEY to ANZ’s success & PEOPLE provide that balance

 

Risk

Return

 

 

Group Risk’s Function: -
To probe, analyse, mitigate and accept risk within agreed appetite and bounds

CULTURE

Customer Needs &
Financial objectives

 

The Challenge is to bring together disparate parts to form a cohesive whole

 

Portfolio monitoring & effective controls, using technical skills & a
macro view of the system process/institution built around a shared
cultural approach

 

8



 

 

Market Risk

 



 

Market Risk:  Current Risk Profile

 

•     Based on publicly-reported VAR measures, ANZ now has the lowest trading risk profile of the major Australian Banks

 

Total  “Value At Risk” (VAR) from Annual Reports

(normalised to 97.5% confidence level)

 

[CHART]

 

Note:

CBA stopped publishing “MAX” figures after 1999

 

10



 

 

What is VaR?

 

The “Value at Risk “( VAR) of a portfolio:

 

                                          is a statistical estimate of the potential daily loss to a specified confidence level (eg, 97.5%)

 

                                          is based on an historical simulation using changes in market prices over the past 500 days …

 

                                          …which takes into account correlated movements across the different products/ currencies/ positions.

 

The graph below shows a typical distribution of the 500 simulated profit-and-loss results, and the corresponding level of the Value-at-Risk.

 

Note : to ascribe meaning to the VAR number which results from this calculation, is to assume that the movement in the various rates and prices over the next 24 hours will be broadly similar to and reflected in the historical rate movements experienced over the past 500 days.

 

3 limitations of VAR are very important to understand:

 

      If tomorrow is not like the past, then calculated VAR will be misleading – i.e. , Event Risk is not covered.

 

                  VAR is typically a 2 or 3 standard deviation measure.  VAR is not “Worst Case” – actual losses can be many multiples of the VAR estimate for certain portfolios.

 

      VAR presumes market liquidity, irrespective of position size.

 

Conclusion: VAR numbers must be interpreted with great caution – they are not used in the direct management of risks on the dealer’s desk. A comprehensive framework of Detailed Control Limits is used for this purpose

 

[CHART]

 

The PAST is not a proxy for the FUTURE

 

 

11



 

Value-at-Risk Limits and Exposures

 

•           ANZ utilitises VAR limits as an “outer-bound” constraint on dealer activity

 

                                          Limits are allocated by Market Risk at Global ANZ Trading Book level, by each business line down to individual trading desks, by product line, and by geography

 

                                          VAR Limits are monitored daily by the independent Market Risk Unit, with all excesses thoroughly investigated, action taken as appropriate, and reported to the Credit & Trading Committee as part of the regular monthly Market Risk Report

 

NB:  VAR aggregation at higher levels takes account of correlation diversification effects across portfolios and is not simply lower level portfolios combined on an additive basis

 

              Other limits are used to more tightly control dealing activities

 

                                          Cumulative Stop-Loss Limits specify the maximum loss that a business can sustain before trading is suspended (as a firm policy requirement).  When/if this limit is breached, a full written management assessment ( considering causes, evolving market dynamics, trading strategy and style, skills, mindset,etc. ) is required before Market Risk will authorise resumption of trading.

 

                                          Detailed Control Limits comprise a detailed set of product- specific measures and sensitivity limits which are designed to control trader behaviour and complement the VAR limit structure.

 

12



 

Detailed Control Limits Framework

 

                                          There are several Detailed Control Limits which further constrain risk levels in different books. Some examples applicable to specific portfolios:

 

Open Position Limits

 

Open position limits are used to limit the outright currency risk position for the Spot FX trading business.

 

“Delta-Gamma” Limits

 

“Delta-Gamma” limits are P/L sensitivity limits which specify the maximum loss an options book is permitted to sustain for specified movements in underlying rates. Importantly, these limits pick up the non-linearity or convexity risk ( Gamma) inherent in open option positions.

 

“Vega” Limits

 

“Vega” limits specify the maximum loss an options book can sustain for a 1% shift in the underlying implied volatility rate - a key input into option pricing – e. g. from 12% to 13% .

 

Interest Rate Delta Limits

 

IR Delta limits are used to limit the interest rate risk position for each maturity bucket, for each currency portfolio. The interest rate “delta” is the dollar sensitivity of a portfolio to a one basis point shift in interest rates.

 

13



 

Credit Risk

 



 

Volatility in specific provisions generally driven by large single name losses

 

Specific Provisions

 

Significant impact from
single customers

 

[CHART]

 

15



 

Larger loans require sound judgement, rating tools, and a dual approval process

 

Business Unit
e. g. Institutional Banking

 

 

 

 

 

Group Risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Relationship

 

Relationship

 

 

 

Independent

Team

 

Credit Group

 

 

 

Risk Function

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Has

 

 

 

 

 

 

responsibility

 

Prepares credit

 

Dual approval

 

Separate from

for customer

 

submissions

 

process

 

relationship team

relationship

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remuneration not

 

 

Financial Analysis

 

 

 

linked to deal flow

 

 

 

 

Credit

 

 

 

 

Credit scoring

 

decision

 

Experienced

Customer pricing,

 

 

 

 

 

practitioners

taking into

 

Rating agencies

 

 

 

 

account risk,

 

 

 

 

 

Largest deals

capital allocation,

 

KMV

 

 

 

approved by CTC

relationship costs

 

 

 

 

 

& Board RMC

 

 

Sound judgement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deal Structuring &

 

 

 

 

 

 

Security/Covenants

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Single customer

 

 

 

 

 

 

concentration limits

 

Portfolio Caps

 

Credit Training

 

Portfolio modelling

 

16



 

Ratings tools are increasingly powerful

 

              ANZ customer credit rating ( CCR) must be at or below the equivalent rating from a ratings agency

 

                                          KMV tool can be a useful early warning indicator. Policy in place now requires material movements in KMV rating be investigated and CCR signed off by credit chain

 

                                          ANZ’s automated rating tool, aligned with Basel II, has been released internally via the Intranet to most Institutional and Middle Market points and is accompanied by strict, dual-approval policies

 

                                          ANZ utilises industry- accepted rating and capital allocation methodologies ( Monte Carlo simulations) for its Structured Project lending book

 

                                          Additional models for the Institutional Banking market are being refined.

 

17



 

Single customer concentration limits are in place to cap single name exposures within the portfolio

 

Maximum Direct Credit Lending Limits for Individual Customers

 

[CHART]

 

18



 

 

Portfolio caps also help drive diversification

 

% of ANZ Group Lending Assets

(Australia and New Zealand)

 

[CHART]

 

19



 

Credit Policies & “Scorecards”: the key risk management tools in retail lending

 

Write-offs in the personal loan portfolio

 

[CHART]

 

              Scorecard rebuilt to target 3.5% loss rate

              Retail risk capabilities enhanced

 

20



 

Key challenge: achieving the appropriate risk-vs-return trade-off

 

Scorecards aim to achieve an appropriate risk/ return trade- off

 

[CHART]

 

Ratio of ‘good’ customers to ‘bad’ customers

 

[CHART]

 

At a score of 600, expect 150 ‘good’ customers for each ‘bad’ customer

 

21



 

Low exposure to Inner City residential mortgage lending

 

                                          Total Lending for inner city property at 3.9% of Australian Mortgages portfolio, with 2.2% for investment purposes. Tight policies to control emerging risks include:

                                          valuations required on all new properties

                                          rental income allowable in debt servicing calculation 60%

                                          non- inclusion of negative gearing benefit in serviceability calculation for first time investors

                                          inner city is broadly defined, and extends well beyond CBD

 

                                          Exposure to Melbourne Docklands area ~ 0.07% of the Australian mortgages portfolio, or < 2% of the inner city lending portfolio

 

              Delinquencies

                                          only 16 inner- city customers nationally with arrears > 90 days

                                          no delinquencies in the Docklands and Southbank books

 

Mortgages Portfolio

 

[CHART]

 

Location of Inner City Lending

 

[CHART]

 

22



 

Operational Risk

 



 

The Oldest Risks?

 

Fraud

 

Earthquakes, storms and fires

 

Hijacking

 

Sick buildings

 

Regulatory breaches

 

Pandemics

 

Professional negligence

 

System failures

 

Project failure

 

Fines

 

Human error

 

War, political & civil unrest

 

Litigation

 

Harm to staff

 

Model failure

 

Failure of service providers

 

Resulting in:

 

direct loss

                  expense

                  distraction

 

indirect loss

                  reputation

                  opportunity

 

23



 

More diverse & complex banking activities

 

Deregulation & globalisation of financial services

 

Growing sophistication of financial technology

 

Activities of Banks ( & their risk profiles) more diverse & complex

 

              Recent experience makes it clear that risks other than credit and market risks can be substantial:

                  Barings

                  Enron

                  9/11

                  Allfirst (Allied Irish)

                  Life insurance & pension mis-selling in UK

                  “Spitzer” issues - Underwriting/research conflicts + Mutual fund scandals (etc)

 

24



 

We are now seeing greater focus on Operational Risk by financial services providers, government & others …

 

Financial Services ( Banks, Insurance Companies, Fund Managers)

 

                  Specialist Operational Risk functions

                  Framework, policy, measurement and monitoring

                  Capital allocation for operational risk – now happening

                  Loss, event and near - miss data collection & analysis

                  Extensive, ‘what if ‘ scenario analysis

                  Business continuity testing and crisis management training

                  Executive and Board Risk Committees

 

Government

 

                  Consumer protection

                  Corporate Governance

                  Basel II

                  Sarbanes Oxley

                  Standards & Guidelines

 

Others

 

                  Sustainability

                  Reputation indices

                  Rating Agencies

 

25



 

Key Elements of an Effective Operational Risk Framework

 

Once Operational Risk is defined within the organisation, what are the other key elements the need to be designed and implemented?

 

                                      Governance Structure

                                      Operational Risk Identification & Assessment methodology/process

                                      Operational Risk Measurement methodology

                                      Policies, procedures and processes for mitigating and controlling Operational Risks

                                      Process for the timely capture, analysis/monitoring and reporting of Operational Risks to key decision points within the organisation

 

These elements can be shown graphically as follows:

 

Defining Operational Risk

 

Governance

 

Methodology Measurement

 

Policy

 

Loss Data, Monitoring & Reporting

 

26



 

Operational Risk Categories

 

                            A set of common operational risk categories have been adopted by ANZ, which further define what operational risk means in ANZ. These risk categories are represented below:

 

Internal Operational Risks

 

These risks arise in execution of business strategy and should be controlled by management

 

Process & Policy failure

Personnel failure

Regulatory & Statutory compliance failure

Project failure

Failure of IT

Modelling Errors

 

Both Internal & External Operational Risks

 

Failure of Financial Infrastructure

Fraud

Theft & Crime

Damage to Premises & Environment

 

External Operational Risks

 

These risks arise as a result of external environmental factors

 

Action by Govt & Regulators

Failure of suppliers / outsourcers

Commercial & Legal disputes

 

27



 

Central Operational Risk Management Structure

 

Chief Executive Officer

 

Chief Risk Officer

 

BU Managing Directors

Business Unit Risk Heads

 

Operational Risk

 

Fraud Risk and Investigations

Business Continuity & Crisis Mgt

Operational Risk Measurement & Policy

Payments Risk

Operational Risk Identification & Insurance

Technology Risk

 

28



 

Impact of Basel II

 

Regulatory Capital for Operational Risk:

 

                                          Basel I (1988)

                                          zero

 

                                          Basel II (2007 onwards)

                                          substantial!

 

29



 

The Big Controversy!

 

                                               How much capital should be held for Operational Risk?

                                          ~20%?   (Basel CP2, January 2001)

                                          ~12%?   (Basel CP3, April 2003)

                                          (Other?)

 

*  The magnitude of this shift illustrates the difficulty of the measurement challenge!

 

30



 

The Difficulty of Measurement

 

                                          In recent years, we have seen the first serious attempts to measure operational risk… really the birth of a new discipline

 

                                          The industry has made great progress, but difficult questions remain:

 

1.                                      What are the principal determinants of the level of Operational Risk?

 

2.                                      What are the key differences between Operational, Credit and Market Risks? Which statistical methods used to measure Credit and Market Risk are applicable to Operational Risk?

 

3.                                      When is historical loss experience a reliable guide to Operational Risk in the future? More generally, how can Operational Risk measures be made forward-looking?

 

4.                                      What is the role of historical information, including loss data?

 

31



 

                                        The industry has made great progress, but difficult questions remain:

 

5.                                      When is external information (including loss data) relevant? How should it be used?

 

6.                                      How should specific operational scenarios be incorporated in the measurement of Operational Risk?

 

7.                                      What about “Key Risk Indicators”?

 

8.                                      How can we incorporate an assessment of the quality of operational processes and internal controls into the Op. Risk measurement process? How important is this?

 

9.                                      What is the role of Senior Executive judgment in the Operational Risk measurement process? Where is the “right” balance between quantitative and qualitative factors?

 

10.                               How can unexpected loss and capital be measured?

 

32



 

Approaches to Measuring Operational Risk

 

Although “1,000 flowers are blooming”, there are 3 principal methods in use in banks today:

 

                                          Loss Distribution Approach (statistical)

 

                                          “Scorecard” or “Risk Drivers and Controls” Approaches (more qualitative)

 

                                          Scenario-driven methods

 

Regardless of which method is chosen, to qualify for AMA accreditation under Basel II, a bank must clearly specify how its method makes use of:

 

                                          Internal data

                                          External data

                                          Quality control assessments

                                          Scenarios

 

33



 

ANZ’s Operational Risk Measurement Objectives (1999)

 

To develop an operational risk measurement methodology which:

 

                                          Directly connects risk measurement with the operational risk management process;

 

                                          Provides increased understanding and transparency of operational risk exposures;

 

                                          Provides a ‘road map’ for reducing risk; and

 

                                          Provides transparent incentives for banks to invest in internal controls.

 

34



 

Risk Drivers and Controls” Approaches

 

                                        A “Scorecard” methodology refers to a class of diverse approaches to operational risk measurement and capital determination, which all have at their core an assessment of specific operational risk drivers and controls.

 

These can also be called “Risk Drivers and Controls Approaches”, or “RDCAs”.

 

                                        Such approaches are effectively expert systems, which assess:

                                          the level of a bank’s exposure to specified drivers of risk, and

                                          the scope and quality of a bank’s internal control environment, key operational processes and risk mitigants,

 

and directly link these assessments to risk capital.

 

35



 

Key Features of RDCAs

 

                                          A measurement framework designed to focus on the principal drivers and controls surrounding operational risks

 

                                          A series of weighted, risk-based questions by risk type or category

 

                                          Reflects the organization’s unique operational risk profile by:

                                          Devising organization-specific questions

                                          Calibrating responses to establish a range from “leading practice”  to “ineffective”

                                          Applying customized question weightings and response scores aligned with the relative importance of individual risks

 

                                     The specific risk categories, customized suite of questions, weightings and scored response options provide business managers with transparent priorities for risk management improvements

 

36



 

Key Benefits of RDCAs

 

Business Line Involvement

             RDCAs leverage the collective operational risk knowledge of the organization

             Business line involvement underpins their “ownership” of the results.

 

Forward-looking

                                        RDCAs attract capital when vulnerabilities & weaknesses are identified

                                        RDCAs provide an objective evaluation of the level of each business unit’s risk drivers and further serves as an effective proxy for future risk.

 

Behavioural Incentives for Improved Risk Management

             Maximized if a direct linkage between capital charges and management performance is established:

 

E.g. Employ economic capital for operational risk within a RAROC or “Economic Value Added” (EVA) model, and use RAROC/EVA as the basis for:

 

risk-adjusted performance measurement and compensation

 

37



 

 

Transparency

 

                                          All risk assessments are explicit and transparent, especially to line managers, and are regularly subjected to managerial, audit and/or supervisory interrogation

 

                                          The linkage to capital is formula-driven, transparent and risk sensitive, reflecting risk profile changes.

 

Responsive to change

 

                                          Responsive to changes in the risk profile resulting from changes to the business mix or new operational risks

 

                                          Before losses are experienced (e.g. Information Technology Security risks)

 

Fully Integrated into the Operational Risk Management Process

 

                                          RDCA methodologies are fully aligned with the organization’s operational risk management framework, thus directly linking the measurement and management of operational risk.

 

39



 

Operational Risk Capital & Performance…

 

“...and one of the things I think that really does matter to this is the earlier introduction of EVA at the transactional and the customer level, means that we have a self-correcting mechanism that is in fact ensuring that risk comes down over time, without it being necessarily driven from the centre.

 

And in fact the fact we are one of the few banks in the world that allocate capital to Operational Risk in our EVA model, is also a leading edge indicator, which means that Operational Risks also get managed in the same way ...

 

And we think that’s a very important device because it means that an individual decision that leads to a negative EVA does not get done.”

 

John McFarlane, CEO, ANZ Banking Group (25 October 2001)

 

40



 

We have also implemented a specialised framework for project risk management

 

PIRC

 

 

 

Group Project Centre of

 

Technology Risk

Excellence (GPCE)

 

Management (TRM)

 

 

 

Project Management QA

 

Technology Risks in the project

Financial QA

 

(not Project Management Risks)

“Is it still sensible to

 

Risk Management consulting

continue with this project?”

 

to the project

 

41



 

Simplifying and strengthening Compliance: a holistic approach

 

                  Strengthening compliance oversight has been identified as a key component to achieving operational excellence.

 

Previous model focussed on legal/regulatory compliance

 

Risk that cannot be controlled by compliance (eg strategic risk, pure credit and market risk)

 

New model extends compliance to address:

 

                  financial & prudential control

 

                  credit, market & other operational control requirements for core processes

 

                  Stronger consequence management for non-compliance breaches

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

42



 

Strategy & Business Risk

 



 

Strategy and Business Risks important risk dimensions

 

                  Credit, Market and Operational Risks are now documented

 

                  Strategy and business risk is now at the forefront of risk management capability

 

                  Business Risk is the risk that value will be lost through the selection of specific business directions or through changes to the Group’s overall business model.

 

Business Risk

 

Losing money Wrong Strategy

 

Credit Risk

 

Customer fails to pay

 

Market Risk

 

Change in Market Prices

 

Operational Risk

 

Inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events

 

44



 

Strategy and Business Risks: a differentiator for ANZ

 

                  Group Chief Risk Officer is accountable to the Board for oversight of risk in the integration.

 

                  Accountability includes the development of a framework that assigns accountability for the management of integration risks.

 

                  Day-to-day management of integration risks is undertaken at a local level.

 

Integration Risks

 

Integration of ANZ and NBNZ

 

ANZ GROUP

 

BSI (1)

 

 

 

ANZ NZ

 

NBNZ

 

ANZ National Bank

 


(1)         BSI = Business Systems Integration

 

45



 

Strategy Engagement

 

Group Risk Management is formally involved in all strategic initiatives

 

                  A substantial part of the bank’s risk profile is determined by its strategy and growth initiatives

 

                  “Best practice” risk management involves an independent group providing input into strategy development and key investment decisions, ensuring that all the risks are transparently reflected and properly understood at key decision levels

 

                  At ANZ Group Risk Management is actively involved in key strategy developments and major investment decisions

 

                  Specific engagements over the last 6 months have included:

 

                                          Decision to acquire NBNZ

                                          Establishment of a strategic alliance with the Shanghai Rural Credit Cooperatives Union

 

46



 

Capital Allocation, Risk-Adjusted Pricing, and Basel II

 



 

Economic Capital:  Conceptual Framework

 

Conceptual Framework:

                  Risk models employed to quantify economic risk are used to allocate economic capital - the amount of capital needed to support a bank’s risk taking activities

                  Credit  risk capital allocation systems typically based on institutional estimates of their credit loss distribution

                  Economic capital allocated to a particular activity reflects that activity’s marginal risk contribution to the portfolio taking into account diversification

 

Applications:

                  Measure risk adjusted profitability and ensure efficient usage of shareholder funds

                  Portfolio risk management in the setting of limits & reporting of portfolio credit quality

 

Probability of loss

 

[CHART]

 

48



 

Risk adjusted EVA based pricing methodology makes the risk/return trade-off explicit to relationship managers

 

Illustrative example

 

Component

 

Example

 

 

 

 

 

Cost of Funds

 

6.00

%

 

 

 

 

Loan Loss Provision

 

0.53

%

Direct Expense*

 

0.15

%

Indirect Expense*

 

0.15

%

Overhead*

 

0.10

%

 

 

 

 

Total charges before capital charge

 

6.93

%

 

 

 

 

Capital Charge

 

0.34

%

 

 

 

 

Total Required Loan Rate

 

7.27

%

 

Source

 

Funds Transfer Pricing Systems

 

Credit Risk Models

 

Product Cost Accounting Systems

 

Capital calculation

Allocated equity/loan = 6.7%

Opportunity cost of equity = 11%

(“hurdle rate”)

FTP Benefit = 6%

After tax capital charge = 0.067x (0.11 - 0.06) = 0.3%

Tax Rate (imputation-adjusted) = 0.108

Pre-tax capital charge = 0.3%/0.892 = 0.34%

 


* includes fixed and variable components

 

49



 

ANZ’s Basel II Programme

 

                  ANZ formally established its Basel II Programme in December 2001.

 

                  Our objective is compliance with the Advanced IRB approach for Credit Risk and the AMA approach for Operational Risk.

 

                  The Programme has, at its core, a central programme office, with multiple core projects and workstreams.

 

                  The senior executive Steering Committee meets monthly to review status, and consists of senior business unit representatives and senior central function executives (e.g Risk, Finance and Technology), including several members of the Management Board.

 

                  The evaluation phase was completed in 2003 and an independent Quality Assurance check by PwC placed ANZ in the top tier of Banks aspiring to be accredited at the more advanced levels within the new Basel Accord.

 

                  The design and implementation phase of the programme is well underway with some key phases of the programme now nearing completion.

 

                  Regular meetings are conducted with APRA to present programme progress and specific developments in the programme workstreams.

 

50



 

Basel II benefits

 

                  QIS 3 - the first comprehensive survey of likely Basel II effects on Pillar 1 capital – forecasts large regulatory capital reductions for ANZ and other Australian banks.

 

                  While based on Sept 02 data and CP2 capital formulae, it is directionally in line with what could be expected from the raw calculation of the minimum 8% capital requirement under Basel II.

 

                  Nonetheless, ANZ is not expecting such drastic falls in regulatory capital to be permitted. Capital for Pillar 2 and potentially other add-ons will be required. However, we do expect a moderate fall in regulatory capital to flow (eventually).

 

                  Principal benefits will flow from improved risk measurement and management infrastructure, further improvements to rating tools and other quantitative loss modelling, an enhanced corporate collateral management system, and improved data collection and integration.

 

Change in RWA under Basel II(1) QIS 3 results

 

[CHART]

 

ANZ Regulatory Capital under Basel II
by key asset class
(calculated at 8% of risk weighted assets)

 

[CHART]

 


Note:

 

(1).                The reduction in RWAs using Advanced IRB outcomes (excluding operational risk) when compared with current accord capital requirements can be used as an indicator of the relative riskiness of a bank’s assets.

 

(2).                RWA calculations were performed using the capital functions used in QIS 3 These are slightly different compared to the final Accord, but provide a reasonable guide.

 

51



 

We have transformed ANZ into a more sustainable, lower risk business

 

 

Reduction in risk and
movement towards
domestic consumer
businesses

 

Has significantly
reduced earnings
volatility

 

And has not had a
material impact on
group earnings

 

[CHART]

 


* Standard deviation in six monthly NPAT growth for ANZ, excluding abnormal/significant items

 

52



 

Supplementary info

 



 

US power exposures continue to reduce, although lagged credit effects continue to affect the portfolio

 

Total US Limits(1)

 

[CHART]

 

US: March 2004

 

                  Outstandings: $0.6bn (70%)

                  Other Committed: $0.2bn (25%)

                  Uncommitted: $0.1bn (5%)

 

Customers

 

                  Investment Grade: 10

                  Non Accrual: 4

                  Total: 19

 

                  We continue to actively manage our exposure to the US Energy sector.

 

                  Over the past 18 months, exposure to the merchant energy sector and other non-core segments has reduced substantially through repayments, sell-downs and restructuring.

 

                  Whilst Non Accrual Loans have increased in the US portfolio as a result of the lagged credit effect, prudent management has resulted in a lower level of expected losses from the portfolio.  Any further losses can be readily absorbed within existing ELP levels.

 


(1).          Excludes Settlement Limits but includes Contingent and Market-Related products domiciled in the US.

 

54



 

The quality of the Telcos book continues to improve

 

Total Telcos Limits(1)

 

[CHART]

 

March 2004

 

                  Outstandings: $0.6bn (70%)

 

                  Other Committed: $0.2bn (25%)

 

                  Uncommitted: $0.1bn (5%)

 

KMV Median Expected Default Frequency

 

[CHART]

 


Note:

 

(1).    Excludes Settlement Limits but includes Contingent and Market-Related products.

 

55



 

Proactive reduction in volume of “Top 10” client committed exposures

 

                  Implementation of credit management policies to diversify the loan book exposure, has resulted in reducing the client concentration risk, despite the inclusion of NBNZ exposures. This has been achieved through reducing the volume of “Top 10” client committed lending.

 

                  Sustained management of client exposures has reduced the sensitivity of the capital base of “Top 10” clients (to 68% of ACE in March 2004 from 75% of ACE September 2003).

 

S & P
Rating

 

Top 10 Committed Exposures

 

[CHART]

 

Top 10 Lending Exposures as % of ACE(1)

 

[CHART]

 


Note:

 

(1).                               March 2004 derivative exposures were calculated using a Monte Carlo model to calculate ANZ’s potential credit loss. The impact in moving to this methodology reduced the above ratio by 4.4 percentage points in comparison to ANZ’s previous methodology.

 

56



 

Quality of Consumer & SME portfolios again better than expected

 

                  Mortgage delinquencies (60 days) improved over the half

 

                  Delinquency for customers new to SME since September 2002 is in line with delinquency on legacy SME portfolio

 

                  Strong economic conditions and prudent credit practices have continued to see our Retail delinquency and loss rates remain very low

 

Delinquencies down on March 03

 

[CHART]

 

                  Delinquency for Mortgage products have flattened over the half

 

                  delinquencies on RILs and Broker introduced loans have remained in line with the wider portfolio

 

                  Australia’s low unemployment rate should continue to help maintain the quality of the portfolio

 

Mortgage delinquencies remain low across each category

 

[CHART]

 

TPMI – third party mortgage introducers

*Excludes NBNZ

O/O – owner occupied

 

57



 

The material in this presentation is general background information about the Bank’s activities current at the date of the presentation.  It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete.  It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor.  These should be considered, with or without professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate.

 

For further information visit

 

www.anz.com

 

or contact

 

Simon Fraser
Head of Investor Relations

 

ph: (613) 9273 4185   fax: (613) 9273 4091   e-mail: simon.fraser@anz.com

 

58